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Bitcoin back on track: S2F model still predicts $ 100,000

Bitcoin is back on track at $ 100,000, data shows.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) follows the price forecasts pretty closely and is now offering investors profits in this bull cycle, according to the well-known analyst PlanB.

In a tweet on December 17 , the creator of the stock-to-flow rate model stated that Bitcoin’s growth in its current halving cycle is going as planned.

BTC price hits $ 23,562 stock-to-flow model forecast

Despite the tremendous volatility this week, the stock-to-flow model can predict the rate at which the Bitcoin price will change over longer periods of time.

Critics have argued that Bitcoin cannot replicate its behavior from the last bull cycle, especially 2017, and that gains would not be as strong this time around. It would also take longer for them to materialize.

If you compare the development since May (the day of the third Bitcoin halving ) with the development after the first and second halving in 2012 and 2017, this year could not be more exemplary, according to PlanB.

„Rest in peace ‚longer cycles‘ and ‚dwindling gains'“, as he summarized with a new chart.

Bitcoin’s run to a high of over $ 23,000 has ensured that it is now precisely following the forecast of the stock-to-flow model. At just under $ 20,000, the BTC / USD pair was actually below expectations when compared to the model’s predictions.

As Cointelegraph reports , however, Bitcoin Trend App already outperformed its development in November as part of the halving of 2016.

The different versions of the stock-to-flow model forecast a Bitcoin price between 100,000 and 576,000 US dollars by the end of the current halving cycle in 2024. The BTC / USD pair had exactly the daily forecast on Thursday at 23,562 US dollars of the original model.

Erb: Bitcoin „fair price“ is $ 12,000

More and more institutional financiers share this view and are investing their money to prove it.

This week, One River Asset Management announced plans to increase its Bitcoin and Ether ( ETH ) holdings to over $ 1 billion by early 2021. Guggenheim has reserved the right to invest part of its own capital in BTC. The company said fair value for bitcoin was $ 400,000 . That’s 1,600 percent more than Thursday’s all-time high.

Only a few people still back the bear. Among them is Claude Erb, the asset manager who wrote the book „The Golden Dilemma“. In it he argues against the use of the precious metal as a hedge against unexpected inflation.

In a new report titled „Bitcoin is just like gold except when it isn’t,“ Erb creates a new price model loosely tied to the network effect. He calculated a maximum theoretical value of 74,000 US dollars per bitcoin.

„Bitcoin has no track record as an inflation hedge, a store of value and a safe haven,“ the executive summary reads.

„The Bitcoin course can be broken down into a questionable, fair ‚Bitcoin network‘ course and a fair course deviation. Bitcoin and gold are about 50 percent above their ‚fair price‘.“

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